The countdown has officially begun as we’re now less than one year away from the kickoff of the FIFA 2026 World Cup. For the first time, 48 teams from around the globe will converge on Mexico, the USA and Canada to compete for glory and the FIFA World Cup Trophy. As of press time, 13 of the 48 teams have already punched their tickets and the hope that they’ll be standing on the pitch at MetLife Stadium on July 19th is still very much alive. Three of those teams are the host countries, let’s break down their chances and take a look at their current odds to win it all.
Currently ranked 17th in the world, Mexico are riding high after going undefeated while winning the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup. Mexico has only lost 2 “official” matches in the last year, 0-2 vs. Honduras in Nations League QF and 2-4 in a friendly against Switzerland. In fact, they've racked up victories over 3 of the other qualifiers (New Zealand, Canada, USA) in the last 12 months. Mexico, like the other host countries, have home field advantage and already know when and where they’ll be playing their matches during the group stage. Friendly matches against Japan and South Korea are scheduled for later this year should give a preview of how Mexico could fare against middle of the pack teams in the tournament and if they look in form to make it to the round of 32.
16th ranked USA is hosting their second FIFA World Cup and will be looking to once again make it out of the group stage. The USA is currently coming off a 1-2 loss to Mexico in the finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup and don’t have a stellar win/loss record over the past 12 months. With former Chelsea manager Mauricio Pochettino at the helm of the team since September of last year, the team has shown signs of life, but hasn’t won a match against other teams that have already qualified for the World Cup. They’ve lost twice to both Mexico and Canada in that span of time and were only able to manage a draw against New Zealand last time they met. The USA need a good showing and potentially only need to finish in the top-3 in their group to make it out of the group stage, so who they get in the draw in December will play a big role in their chances.
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The 30th ranked “Les Rouges” are currently celebrating their highest ranking in history. The 2026 FIFA World Cup will mark only the 3rd time Canada has competed in a World Cup. The Canucks have never been able to make it out of the Group Stage, however with the new format and that 3 teams have the ability make it out of Group B, this could be their year. Canada has a full slate of friendly matches scheduled for later this year including against World Cup qualifier Australia as well as potential qualifiers Wales and Colombia. These matches should help Canada get into tournament shape and give us a better idea of their real chances next year.
Realistically, the chances of any of the 3 host countries making it to the finals, let alone winning the 2026 World Cup are very small. While the new format does give each of them an additional chance to make it out of the group stage, they would still need to be in the top 8 of 12 third place finishers. The draw should shed some light on each team's chances in the group stage, and once they reach the knockout phase anything is possible. Who can forget Croatia's improbable run to the finals in 2018.