How To Bet Bucks-Pacers Series Factoring In Giannis' Injury
Per reports, Antetokounmpo will miss the start of the Bucks-Pacers series
Dan Karpuc - Apr 16, 2024, 12:32pm EDT
On Tuesday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the No. 3 seed Milwaukee Bucks will open their series against the No. 6 Indiana Pacers without superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is nursing a left calf strain that he suffered against the Celtics last week.
He will be out for an indefinite amount of time.
Now the questions become whether or not Milwaukee will be able to get out of the first round and when the former MVP will return… if he returns. The Greek Freak’s void will be obvious and gigantic, as he averaged 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists this season, becoming the first player in NBA history to average 30-plus points per game on 60% shooting or better.
The Pacers won four of five regular-season games against the Bucks and disastrously went 17-19 under Doc Rivers after firing Adrian Griffin, who led the team to a 30-13 start.
Indiana owned the 2nd-best Offensive Rating and 2nd-best Net Rating over the final 15 games of the regular season (going 10-5 SU) while Milwaukee ranked 19th in Net Rating in that span (going 6-9, including 3-8 SU in their last 11 down the stretch). In other words, these teams were going in opposite directions… even before Giannis got hurt.
The Bucks went 4-5 SU without Giannis this season and were outscored by 23.2 points per 100 possessions in 172 total minutes with Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez on the floor, per NBA.com. Additionally, in 53 minutes with Antetokounmpo off the floor against the Pacers this season, the Bucks were outscored by 39 points. That spells trouble for Milwaukee.
This is the first time the two teams met since Indy acquired Pascal Siakam and Rivers was hired. But nonetheless, we should expect Indiana to push the pace; Indiana has gone 23-4 SU when they had 20-plus fast break points this season and the Pacers operated at the 2nd-fastest pace during the campaign.
On Tuesday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the No. 3 seed Milwaukee Bucks will open their series against the No. 6 Indiana Pacers without superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is nursing a left calf strain that he suffered against the Celtics last week.
He will be out for an indefinite amount of time.
Now the questions become whether or not Milwaukee will be able to get out of the first round and when the former MVP will return… if he returns. The Greek Freak’s void will be obvious and gigantic, as he averaged 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists this season, becoming the first player in NBA history to average 30-plus points per game on 60% shooting or better.
The Pacers won four of five regular-season games against the Bucks and disastrously went 17-19 under Doc Rivers after firing Adrian Griffin, who led the team to a 30-13 start.
Indiana owned the 2nd-best Offensive Rating and 2nd-best Net Rating over the final 15 games of the regular season (going 10-5 SU) while Milwaukee ranked 19th in Net Rating in that span (going 6-9, including 3-8 SU in their last 11 down the stretch). In other words, these teams were going in opposite directions… even before Giannis got hurt.
The Bucks went 4-5 SU without Giannis this season and were outscored by 23.2 points per 100 possessions in 172 total minutes with Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez on the floor, per NBA.com. Additionally, in 53 minutes with Antetokounmpo off the floor against the Pacers this season, the Bucks were outscored by 39 points. That spells trouble for Milwaukee.
This is the first time the two teams met since Indy acquired Pascal Siakam and Rivers was hired. But nonetheless, we should expect Indiana to push the pace; Indiana has gone 23-4 SU when they had 20-plus fast break points this season and the Pacers operated at the 2nd-fastest pace during the campaign.
How To Bet Bucks-Pacers Series
Milwaukee had trouble with Indiana when Giannis was active, so losing him is going to be a huge blow for the Bucks.
Normally, I’d advocate betting the Bucks to win in six or seven based on the perceived volume, but it’s very clear to me that this team hasn’t figured things out with Rivers at the helm.
With Giannis out, we’re going to see Lillard, Middleton, Lopez and Bobby Portis take over most of the offensive load, which will likely result in a stylistic difference since Giannis is typically able to drive to the rim with ease and is perhaps the best finisher in the NBA on the break. Without him, it’s going to be a struggle for the Bucks to generate enough points to keep up with Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell running the point all game long.
Here’s what I’d recommend playing over at FanDuel:
Pacers to win series 4-1 (+700)
Pacers to lead series 3-0 after three games (+410)
Pacers -1.5 games (+138)
Pacers to win series (+100)
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