BetMGM: 2024 NBA Playoff Predictions

The NBA playoffs are on the horizon. In just a few short days, basketball fans will be treated to dozens of games and hundreds of daily NBA betting opportunities. 

Accordingly, I’ve got a few predictions for how the 2024 NBA playoffs might unfold.

NBA Playoff Predictions: Injuries In East Limit Viable Contenders

Let’s start with the futures market in the East, where Boston is -165 to win the conference and +185 to win the championship. 

If you’re like me, then you’re inclined to look a little farther down the table for a candidate with stronger return. The right ticket can provide more value down the road and can set up a good hedge position in later playoff rounds.

The problem, of course, is that much of the East is marred by injuries. 

Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo appears to have suffered a minor Achilles injury with three games left in the regular season. New York’s Julius Randle suffered a season-ending injury earlier this month. Joel Embiid has been hurt for weeks, and Philadelphia has dropped into play-in position with him absent. Miami traded for Terry Rozier in February, only to have him get hurt days later. 

Outside of the Celtics, who exactly is the heir apparent in the East?

NBA Playoff Predictions: Don’t Trust Suns, Clippers

Kevin Durant. Devin Booker. Bradley Beal. Kawhi Leonard. Paul George. James Harden. Russell Westbrook.

There’s a lot of star power between the Suns and Clippers, and both teams have been heavy targets from bettors. More than 15% of all tickets at BetMGM were on either Phoenix or the Clippers, as of April 9.

But both teams have real problems. The Clippers have played some of the worst defense in the league over the final two months of the season, raising concerns that they peaked too early.

The Suns have drifted all the way down into play-in positioning because of a difficult stretch schedule and a low defensive ceiling. Potential play-in matchups against the Warriors and Lakers could threaten Phoenix’s ability to make the playoffs at all.

Considering bettors have to buy both the Clippers (+800) and Suns (+1800) near the top of the market, I’m recommending against buying either team right now. I’m predicting first-round exits for both squads.

NBA Playoff Predictions: Dallas Rates Among Most Dangerous Teams

Speaking of the Clippers, they’re most likely to line up against the Mavericks (+2500) in Round 1.

Over the course of the regular season, Dallas has emerged as a real contender with strong defense and clutch shooting. The Mavericks have the best record in the NBA since March 15 and are entering the playoffs as arguably the hottest team. 

In the past, I’ve been concerned with the level of volatility that Kyrie Irving has brought to the teams he’s played on. But in joining Dallas, Irving has recreated the circumstances that made him a successful playmaker in Cleveland. 

Like LeBron James before him, Luka Dončić is the unquestioned leader and center of the team, leaving Irving to concentrate less on team/franchise leadership and more on excellent basketball.

I think this is a Western Conference Finals team, and I think the market hasn’t correctly reflected that yet. I’ve bought Dallas at +2500 to win the Finals and +1200 to win the West. 

NBA Playoff Predictions: Miami Can’t Sustain 2023 Success

One essential futures question of the season has revolved around how seriously bettors should take Miami. The Heat have played in two of the last four Finals, including last year’s historic run through the East.

Somewhat understandably, many handicappers are afraid to go against the Heat after Miami repeatedly burned regression bettors over and over again last spring. 

Candidly, I am not one of those bettors. I have immense respect for the Heat on an organizational level, but the shooting numbers from playoff role players are just absolutely unrepeatable. 

Even if Miami can earn the No. 7 seed and force a rematch against another injured Bucks team, I’m not holding out for another deep playoff run. 

NBA Playoff Predictions: Unusual Success for Unproven Teams

Here are a few teams I haven’t named so far: Orlando, Cleveland, Indiana, Oklahoma City, New Orleans. 

Typically, the NBA playoffs is a medium where older, veteran teams are successful. But because of how many flawed teams will make this year’s postseason, I am predicting an unusually successful playoff season for young, mostly untested teams.

While the NBA championship odds may not be the best futures market to bet on a team like Orlando or Indiana, the individual series prices will offer a lot of options for bettors hunting for value. 

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Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.