NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football

NFL Picks: Thursday Night Football

Another week of NFL games is here, and that means it's time to cash some NFL bets! This week's Thursday Night Football clash features AFC East rivals the Jets at the Partiots, and we've got the inside scoop on where to place your bets.

Our expert team at BetQL has dissected the stats, analyzed player form and scrutinized past performances, all thanks to BetQL, to bring you the most informed NFL picks for this prime-time battle.

Our NFL picks are the result of a thorough process that combines data-driven analysis with a deep understanding of the game. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just starting out, our NFL picks are tailored to give you the upper hand.

So, join us as we break down the key players, strategies and potential game-changers in this electrifying contest. Below, you’ll see a betting breakdown with expert NFL picks from the BetQL Editorial Team, including sleeper picks and epic sportsbook promotions to cash in on!

As always, BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NFL betting odds, best bets from our NFL model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and much more to help you cash more bets. BetQL subscribers can see all of this week's best bets with game projections, player props, betting trends and more!

MORE: TNF PLAYER PROPS

TNF: Jets at Patriots Picks & Best Bets

Jets +10.5 (-105, ESPNBET)

Are the Jets going to win in week 11? Probably not, but are they going to lose by 11 or more points, I don't think so. Things seem to be clicking for the Jets recently. They snapped their seven game losing streak and have now won two in a row. Of their losses this season, only 2 have been by 10 or more points, and they're "only" being outscored by 5 points per game on average. The Jets are horrible at passing, but that may actually work to their advantage as the weather in Foxborough in November could dictate needing a solid run game, which New York has.

If we look at the Patriots, they've now won seven in a row and are sitting comfortably atop the AFC East. QB Drake Maye is 3rd in passing yards and his 72.9 QBR is 5th best in the NFL right now. The Pats are outscoring their opponents by 7 points on average, but have only won 3 games this season by 10 or more points. New England's defense is allowing 19.2 points per game, which is very much in line with what the Jets are scoring on average.

The BetQL NFL computer model has the Patriots winning in 75% of its simulations with a projected final score of 26.5-20. While the Jets haven't played great, they have a number of close losses this season. We've got New England winning by 6.5, so the Jets +10.5 currently at -105 could be interesting for bettors looking for a wager with a higher potential payout than the money line.

Check out our fell preview here.

Josh Allen Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-113, DraftKings)

Allen is averaging over 240 passing yards per game. The Texans may have a strong defense, but the Bills have shown they're a pass first team and Allen is their star.

James Cook Under 94.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-113 DraftKings)

We think Cook will have a respectable day running the ball, but he's not one of Allen's primary receiving targets. Look for him to catch 2-3 passes, but not to crack 80+ total yards for the game.

Keon Coleman Anytime TD (+475 DraftKings)

We're expecting big things from Coleman on Thursday, including 70+ receiving yards and a TD. He might be a long shot, but we're taking him and the big return he offers.

Davis Mills Over 211.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

We're thinking this could by Mills' coming out party. He's not flashy, and he's only averaging around 180 pass yards per game, but we're expecting a big game from him on Thursday, with at or near career high passing numbers.

Woody Marks Under 14.5 Rushes (-101, FanDuel)

The Bills defense makes rushing near impossible, so look for Marks' impact to be around his average of just under 10 rush attempts in this one.

Best Sportsbook Promotions

Check out our plays for today's best sportsbook promotions, including odds boosts and more!

2025 Thursday Night Football Schedule

The 2025 NFL schedule is out which means that we have the complete Thursday Night Football schedule. Let’s take a look at the full exciting schedule below:

How To Bet Thursday Night Football

Research the teams: Before placing any Thursday Night Football bets, it's important to gather information about the teams playing. Consider their recent performance, key players, injuries, head-to-head records, and any other relevant factors that may impact the game.

Understand the odds: Familiarize yourself with how NFL betting odds work. Odds indicate the probability of a specific outcome, and they also determine the potential payout. Learn about different types of bets, such as point spreads, moneylines, and over/unders, and consider which type of bet aligns with your betting strategy.

Set a budget: It's crucial to establish a budget for your Thursday Night Football betting activities and stick to it. Only wager what you can afford to lose, and avoid chasing losses by increasing your bets. Responsible bankroll management is key to maintaining a sustainable and enjoyable betting experience.

Shop for the best odds: Different sportsbooks may offer slightly different Thursday Night Football odds for the same game. Take the time to compare odds from multiple bookmakers to ensure you're getting the best value for your bets. Even small differences in odds can significantly impact your overall profitability in the long run.

Consider additional factors: While statistics and trends are important, also consider other factors that may influence the outcome of a Thursday Night Football game. These factors could include weather conditions, home-field advantage, coaching strategies, and team motivation.

Practice self-control: Emotions can often cloud judgment, leading to impulsive or irrational betting decisions. Try to approach sports betting with a calm and logical mindset. Avoid betting on your favorite Thursday Night Football team solely based on loyalty, as it can bias your judgment.

Remember, Thursday Night Football betting involves an element of risk, and there are no guaranteed outcomes. It's essential to gamble responsibly, be mindful of your betting habits, and enjoy the game within your means.

Be sure to consult BetQL’s NFL Model before placing any Thursday Night Football bets. Also see live public betting, sharp betting and line movement data, player prop projections, trending bets and more!

Thursday Night Football Betting Strategy

When it comes to betting on Thursday night NFL games, here are some strategies you can consider:

Research the teams: Analyze the teams' recent performance, including their records, statistics, and key player injuries. Look at their offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as their past performance in prime-time games.

Consider short weeks: Thursday night games usually occur after a shorter week of preparation, which can impact team performance. Take into account how teams have historically fared in these situations, as some may struggle to perform at their usual level due to less rest and recovery time.

Home-field advantage: Assess the impact of home-field advantage on the teams playing. Some teams tend to perform better at home, so consider this factor when making your predictions.

Weather conditions: Keep an eye on the weather forecast for the game. Extreme weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, can significantly affect the outcome and scoring potential. Adjust your betting strategy accordingly.

Line movements and public betting: Pay attention to line movements and public betting trends. These can provide valuable insights into how the majority of bettors are leaning and whether there might be value in taking the contrarian approach.

Prop bets and alternative markets: Look beyond the traditional spread and over/under bets. Prop bets, player performance bets, and alternative markets can offer interesting opportunities, especially if you have in-depth knowledge about specific players or matchups.

Manage your bankroll: Set a budget for your wagers and avoid chasing losses. It's important to bet responsibly and not wager more than you can afford to lose. Develop a staking plan and stick to it, adjusting your bet sizes based on your confidence in each pick.

Remember, betting on sports is inherently risky, and there are no guaranteed strategies for success. These tips are meant to provide a framework for making informed decisions, but ultimately, outcomes can be unpredictable. Exercise caution and always gamble responsibly.