Expert Locks Of The Day
BetQL experts unveil their top multi-sport picks of the day!
Lucy Burdge: Jose Altuve O 1.5 Total Bases vs. Phillies (-105, BetMGM)
Altuve just hit this in his last game with two total bases and has also hit this in three of his last five games with two home runs in those last five. Against Taijuan Walker, he is batting .344 with a home run, three doubles and 11 singles. Walker also just allowed six runs in his last start and four home runs over his last two outings. So I think Altuve can hit the over on this tonight.
Matt Horner: Padres at Cardinals Under 8.5 (-120, ESPN)
This is only available at ESPNBet, but I am fine with the Under 8 that is listed everywhere else, this just gets us off a possible push if you can grab it.
RHP Joe Musgrove will be on the hill for San Diego, who was nearly untouchable in his last start against the Mets. Whatever he had done while he was on the IL seems to have worked wonders for him, because he was phenomenal. He allowed just a single hit, didn’t walk anyone, and had nine strikeouts. Before he went on the IL, he looked like a shell of his former self, which is why his ERA was nearly 5.00. However, I had my doubts that he had gotten that terrible over one offseason, considering he owned a 3.11 xERA last season. His injury clearly was affecting his game, and now that it has been healed up, I think he could round back into form. The Cardinals also have been floundering at the plate since the All-Star break, falling from a 108 wRC+ vs. RHP to 102.
Countering him will be RHP Andre Pallante, who has the highest ground ball rate in MLB by a mile, sitting at 62.7%. The next closest starter, Jose Soriano, owns a 59.9% rate. Amazingly, his career rate is even higher, at 67.3%. Since his MLB debut in 2022, only Clay Holmes (69.4%) has a higher ground ball rate. So, why does this matter so much? It plays right into the Padres weakness. They don’t strikeout at all (17.7% K%), so he might be able to get them to hit into a lot of weak outs since he is not a pitcher that is going to challenge with his fastball. He also is great at limiting hard contact, with a very small 0.62 HR/9 rate.
Both teams own top-10 bullpens in xFIP, so once the starters leave, runs will still likely be harder to come by. I think 8.5 is a bit too high of a total, so I’ll take the under here in what I think will be a lower-scoring affair.
Kate Constable: Seattle Storm 1Q -2.5 vs. Dream (-110, DraftKings)
The Storm have struggled a lot since the All-Star break, losing three of their four games. That includes a loss to the Mystics on Monday. After the game, Skylar Diggins-Smith said in her post-game press conference that the team didn’t come ready to play on either side of the ball. She was nearly in tears due to her frustration, which is why I think we’ll see an extremely focused Storm team out of the gate tonight. They are also going up against an Atlanta team that beat them just last week, so revenge will be on their minds.
Lucy Burdge: Jose Altuve O 1.5 Total Bases vs. Phillies (-105, BetMGM)
Altuve just hit this in his last game with two total bases and has also hit this in three of his last five games with two home runs in those last five. Against Taijuan Walker, he is batting .344 with a home run, three doubles and 11 singles. Walker also just allowed six runs in his last start and four home runs over his last two outings. So I think Altuve can hit the over on this tonight.
Matt Horner: Padres at Cardinals Under 8.5 (-120, ESPN)
This is only available at ESPNBet, but I am fine with the Under 8 that is listed everywhere else, this just gets us off a possible push if you can grab it.
RHP Joe Musgrove will be on the hill for San Diego, who was nearly untouchable in his last start against the Mets. Whatever he had done while he was on the IL seems to have worked wonders for him, because he was phenomenal. He allowed just a single hit, didn’t walk anyone, and had nine strikeouts. Before he went on the IL, he looked like a shell of his former self, which is why his ERA was nearly 5.00. However, I had my doubts that he had gotten that terrible over one offseason, considering he owned a 3.11 xERA last season. His injury clearly was affecting his game, and now that it has been healed up, I think he could round back into form. The Cardinals also have been floundering at the plate since the All-Star break, falling from a 108 wRC+ vs. RHP to 102.
Countering him will be RHP Andre Pallante, who has the highest ground ball rate in MLB by a mile, sitting at 62.7%. The next closest starter, Jose Soriano, owns a 59.9% rate. Amazingly, his career rate is even higher, at 67.3%. Since his MLB debut in 2022, only Clay Holmes (69.4%) has a higher ground ball rate. So, why does this matter so much? It plays right into the Padres weakness. They don’t strikeout at all (17.7% K%), so he might be able to get them to hit into a lot of weak outs since he is not a pitcher that is going to challenge with his fastball. He also is great at limiting hard contact, with a very small 0.62 HR/9 rate.
Both teams own top-10 bullpens in xFIP, so once the starters leave, runs will still likely be harder to come by. I think 8.5 is a bit too high of a total, so I’ll take the under here in what I think will be a lower-scoring affair.
Kate Constable: Seattle Storm 1Q -2.5 vs. Dream (-110, DraftKings)
The Storm have struggled a lot since the All-Star break, losing three of their four games. That includes a loss to the Mystics on Monday. After the game, Skylar Diggins-Smith said in her post-game press conference that the team didn’t come ready to play on either side of the ball. She was nearly in tears due to her frustration, which is why I think we’ll see an extremely focused Storm team out of the gate tonight. They are also going up against an Atlanta team that beat them just last week, so revenge will be on their minds.
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