#19 Miami Hurricanes at Florida Gators Week 1 Preview: Best Bet, Odds & Prediction
Sunshine State Rivalry: Betting Breakdown, Key Matchups, and Predictions as Miami Faces Florida in a High-Stakes Week 1 Battle
Dan Karpuc - Aug 28, 2024, 4:13pm EDT
Week 1 Matchup Preview: #19 Miami Hurricanes at Florida Gators
Date: Saturday August 31, 2024. 3:30 PM ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, FL)
BetMGM Odds: Miami -150, Miami -2.5, O/U 54.5
The 2024 college football season heats up with a fierce Sunshine State rivalry as the #19 Miami Hurricanes take on the Florida Gators. Scheduled for Saturday, August 31, at 3:30 PM ET, this high-stakes matchup at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL is set to deliver excitement. With Miami favored by a narrow margin, both teams will be looking to make a strong statement early in the season. In this preview, we’ll break down the key matchups, analyze betting trends, and offer expert predictions for this thrilling Week 1 showdown.
My Best Bet: Florida ML +125
In what is shaping up to be a highly-anticipated matchup, the Miami Hurricanes are set to take on the Florida Gators in a game that BetQL is forecasting to be a close battle. With 10,000 simulations favoring Florida in 54.0% of scenarios and Miami holding the edge in 46.0% of simulations, both teams will need to bring their A-game to secure the victory. Turnover margin is highlighted as a key factor in close contests, with Miami emerging victorious in 64.0% of simulations where they commit fewer turnovers, while Florida matches this success rate when they take care of the ball. QB Cam Ward was a huge pickup for the Hurricanes in the Transfer Portal, but this is a very tough debut for him and he has historically struggled when facing heavy pressure in the pocket (that’ll be essential for Florida’s defense to remember).
On the ground, running back Montrell Johnson Jr. has been showcasing his skills with an average of 87.0 rushing yards per sim. If Johnson Jr. can elevate his game with better-than-average rushing yards and secure at least one rushing touchdown, he could play a crucial role in helping his team secure the win at The Swamp. Florida QB Graham Mertz might not have as high a ceiling as Ward, but he probably has a higher floor.
As the current point spread sits at FLA +2.5 and the over/under line is set at 54.5, this game is expected to be tightly contested with both teams having a chance to emerge victorious, but there’s a ton of urgency for Billy Napier’s squad to win this game due to the fact that they have the hardest schedule I’ve ever seen a college football team have.
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