College Football Week 5 Preview

College football is back and we're ready to share all our thoughts on the biggest games of Week 5. We saw major shake ups in the AP rankings after many of the top 25 teams battled it out with each other. Let's take a look at what week 5 has in store for us.

USC Trojans 4-0 (21) at Illinois Fighting Illini 3-1 (23)

USC improved to 2-0 in the Big 10 with a 45-31 last week, while the Fighting Illini saw their prospects for the season crumble after getting blown out 10-63 at Indiana. Trojans QB Jaden Maiava has the highest QBR in FSB. This is the first time two teams have played since the 2008 Rose Bowl, and will be the first of three games in a row against top-25 ranked teams for the Trojans. It's clear to see why USC is the favorite. They rank #8 in college football for points scored and #35 for points allowed compared to Illinois' 41st in points scored and 60th in points allowed. USC also ranks higher in average passing and rushing yards per game than the Illini.

Many pundits asked why Illinois was ranked so high to start this season, and despite the amazing playing by QB Luke Altmyer and his 9TDs this season, the Illini have yet to show anything that would have made them a top-10 ranked team. Meanwhile, USC came into the season unranked and thanks to dominant performances against Big 10 rivals Purdue and Michigan State, has climbed their way to #21. A win this weekend keeps them firmly atop the Big 10 leader board. With a tough schedule ahead of them, every game is a must win for USC is they want to make the CFP.

The BetQL computer model has USC winning in 62% of its simulations with a projected final score of 33.5-29.5. Looking at the current lines, we'd suggest looking at the total. Our projections have 63 points being scored. So we're taking Over 59.5 on ESPNBET.

Check out our full game analysis here.

Arizona Wildcats 3-0 (NR) at Iowa State Cyclones 4-0 (14)

Despite a 24-16 win over Arkansa State, the Cyclones saw their AP ranking fall to 14 this week. They open as a 6.5 point favorite against Big 12 rivals Arizona, who took down Kansas State 23-17 last week. Arizona ranks 6th only allowing 8.7 points per game while the Cyclones are ranked 22nd allowing just 14.3. That being said, Arizona's 3 opponents this season haven't been "known" teams, with the exception of Kansas State, so their defense will get its first real test of the season as they head to Ames, Iowa this weekend. The BetQL computer model is giving the Cyclones a 71.1% chance of winning at home on Saturday.

DraftKings has the current total over/under at 49.5 which is 1.5 point less than what our computer model is currently projecting. Our tip: Take the under 49.5 on DraftKings currently at -115.

Check out our full game analysis here.

Auburn Tigers 3-1 (NR) at Texa A&M Aggies 3-0 (9)

The Tigers fell out of the AP 25 this week following a 17-24 loss to Oklahoma in a game that was much closer than the final score would make it appear. As for the Aggies, they had last week off after traveling to Notre Dame and picking up a 41-40 win agains the then ranked #8 Fighting Irish. This SEC battle has the Aggies opening as a 6.5 point favorite despite ranking 104th in the FBS allowing 28.7 points per game. The Aggies will have to step it up on both sides of the ball, as Auburn is averaging 33.5 points per game while only allowing opponents to score 16.5. The Tigers "weakness" seems to be their passing attack. Despite Jackson Arnold's 81.0 QBR, Auburn ranks 103rd in passing yards per game with 185.3. The tigers will now have back to back games against top-10 ranked opponents and need to win at least one of them if they want to be competitive in the SEC this season.

We've got Texas A&M as a 7 point favorite according to our computer simulations. Our tip: take A&M -6.5 currently at -110 on FanDuel.

Check out our full game analysis here.