Bears vs. Vikings: MNF Best Bets For Week 12

Bears at Vikings: MNF Week 12 Betting Preview

The Bears and Vikings meet on Monday Night Football for a divisional matchup. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses in the final minutes of their respective games. Minnesota opened as a -3.5 favorite and that line has held all week. The total has only moved one point from 44 at open to 43 right now. The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 8:15pm ET at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

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Bears at Vikings: Live Week 12 Odds

Chicago Bears Week 12 Outlook

The Bears are coming off an epic collapse against the Lions last weekend. Chicago played well through the first three quarters before giving up a 12-point lead with 4:15 left in the game. Detroit scored 17 unanswered points in just 2:30 to win 31-26 and move to 8-2 on the season.

Justin Fields was under center in that game after missing the previous five weeks with a thumb injury. He threw for 169 yards and one touchdown with zero interceptions. He also ran for a team-leading 104 yards on 18 carries. A number of those carries were designed runs and clearly, Chicago had success with that approach against Detroit. I don't see them having that same success against the Vikings and its top-10 run defense that's allowing opponents just 94 yards on the ground. Minnesota is also allowing opposing QBs the 10th-fewest rushing attempts on the season and the 12th-fewest rushing yards. If Fields is forced to stay in the pocket for the majority of this game, the Bears could struggle to move the ball downfield.

Chicago also continues to shoot itself in the foot with turnovers and penalties, finishing with one fumble lost and six penalties for 69 yards last weekend. It did, however, force Jared Goff into three interceptions, which is something it'll have to do to Josh Dobbs on Monday night if it wants to stay in this game.

One thing the Bears do have going for themselves is their run defense. It ranks fourth in the NFL and should be able to slow down an aspect of Minnesota's game that it's had to utilize quite a bit over the last few weeks without Kirk Cousins.

Minnesota Vikings Week 12 Outlook

Josh Dobbs isn't the same caliber passing quarterback as Cousins. So without Cousins, Minnesota has had to rely more heavily on its run game, which could be a problem against Chicago. On the season, the Vikings rank 28th on the ground, averaging just 93.8 yards per game. However, over the last three games, it has moved to fifth in the league with 148.7 per game.

That's not to say Dobbs can't move the ball through the air. He's thrown for over 220 yards in his first two full games with Minnesota and went 20-for-30 with 158 yards when he took over midway through the first half against the Falcons. The Vikings also have plenty of weapons on the outside with Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn and T.J. Hockenson, even if Justin Jefferson (hamstring) doesn't return.

Minnesota's defense has done a great job lately of forcing opponents to have to settle for field goals. Last weekend, the Vikings forced Denver into five field goals before giving up a touchdown in the final minute of the game. In the two games before that, the Falcons and Saints combined for five field goals and just three touchdowns. If Minnesota can keep the Bears out of the end zone and force them to settle for three, it should put itself in a great position to cover the spread.

NFL Expert Picks For Bears at Vikings

Kate Constable: Vikings -3 (-110, BetMGM)

The Vikings have owned the Bears recently, winning five straight meetings and six of the last seven. Minnesota has also swept Chicago in each of the last two seasons. Not to mention, Chicago has lost 12 straight games against division opponents, and Matt Eberflus is 0-9 in the division while coaching Chicago.

The Bears have the more talented quarterback, which goes a long way, but Minnesota's coaching staff is far and away better than Chicago's. I don't have faith in Eberflus and Getsy to put Chicago in a position to win against a rival on the road. Take Minnesota to get a bounce-back win and cover.

Dan Karpuc: Vikings -3 (-110, BetMGM)

I’m a sucker for trends and there are two undefeated ones backing Minnesota to cover in this game. Under Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game. Since they allowed just 46 to the Broncos last week, that trend is active. Not only that, but under O’Connell, Minnesota has also gone 6-0 ATS against teams that allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. The Bears have allowed their opponents to complete 68.4% of their passes, thus making that trend active as well. At this point in the season, it would benefit the Vikings to win and benefit the Bears to lose for draft position, so that mindset could also come into play here. Give me the Vikes to win and cover at home.

Lucy Burdge: Vikings -3 (-110, BetMGM)

The Vikings have covered their last six spreads and the Bears are just 4-5-2 ATS this season. The Vikings have also covered their last two spreads at home. A BetQL trend favoring this as well is the Vikings are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61 percent or worse this season, so I like the Vikings to cover on Monday Night Football.

NFL Player Prop Picks For Bears at Vikings

Kate Constable: Vikings RB Ty Chandler o30.5 rush yds (-114, FanDuel) 

Since Kirk Cousins went out and Josh Dobbs took over, the Vikings have had to rely a lot more on their run game. As a result, Chandler has become a much bigger part of this offense. He finished with 45 yards on 15 carries against the Saints and 73 yards for 10 carries against the Broncos. I don’t think the books have adjusted this number enough, giving us plenty of value on the over. Make sure you grab this at FanDuel because it’s already 2 yards higher at other places.

Brad Pinkerton: Vikings RB Ty Chandler o1.5 rec & o10.5 rec yds (+107, BetRivers)

I love this parlay for Chandler, who had four catches for 37 yards last week against Denver. No team allows more receiving yards to RBs than Chicago, and only one team has allowed more RB catches. I'd also look at Chandler to go over 2.5 catches (+240) and over 19.5 rec yards (+265) separately.

Dan Karpuc: Bears QB Justin Fields o9.5 rushes (+110, DraftKings)

Fields returned from injury last week and rushed 18 times for 104 yards in a loss to the Lions. So much for easing back into things. That was a season-high, but it’s also worth noting that he’s gone over this mark in three of his last five starts and would have cruised past another against this Vikings team had he not been injured. Fields was knocked out of that game early in the third quarter with eight carries for 46 yards. With D’Onta Foreman out, the Bears will be without a reliable ball-carrier alongside Khalil Herbert, so Fields could benefit even more than usual. I like him to soar over this number and getting it at plus-money is awesome!

Lucy Burdge: Vikings QB Josh Dobbs Anytime TD (+190, DraftKings)

Dobbs has six rushing touchdowns this season with one in each of the Vikings’ last five games. Given that touchdown streak, I think he can keep it going against the Bears tonight.