WNBA Playoff Picks
Our best bets for Game 3 between the Sun-Liberty and Wings-Aces
Kate Constable - Sep 27, 2023, 1:00pm EDTLiberty (-4) at Sun, O/U 159.5
After dropping Game 1 at home, the Liberty bounced back with a win in Game 2. The best-of-five series now heads to Connecticut for Game 3 on Friday night. We took the under 161.5 in Game 2 and that hit, but thank goodness we got the hook because it ended with a final score of 84-77, totaling 161 points. The total in Game 3 has dropped to 159.5, while New York is favored by four on the road.
The Liberty unlocked something on the defense end in Game 2 that has me believing they can cover the short number on Friday. After trailing by six at the end of the first quarter and as much as 12 midway through the first half, New York switched to a zone and that significantly slowed down Connecticut's offense. From that point on, the Sun was outscored by 19 points. New York limited Connecticut's ability to get into the paint, which is what was killing them early in the game.
The Liberty hardly ever played zone during the regular season, but with so many long, athletic players, it worked wonders in slowing down the Sun's penetration and forcing them to hit outside shots. Throughout the postseason, Connecticut is averaging 41.9% from deep. That number dropped to just 39.1% in Tuesday's game. It also went from scoring 34 points in the paint in Game 1 to just 24 in Game 2. Not being able to get to the basket as easily, its field goal percentage dropped from 44.7% in the first half to just 30% in the second half.
Unless Connecticut catches fire from outside in Game 3, I don't think it'll be able to keep up with New York.
My Pick: Liberty -4
Liberty (-4) at Sun, O/U 159.5
After dropping Game 1 at home, the Liberty bounced back with a win in Game 2. The best-of-five series now heads to Connecticut for Game 3 on Friday night. We took the under 161.5 in Game 2 and that hit, but thank goodness we got the hook because it ended with a final score of 84-77, totaling 161 points. The total in Game 3 has dropped to 159.5, while New York is favored by four on the road.
The Liberty unlocked something on the defense end in Game 2 that has me believing they can cover the short number on Friday. After trailing by six at the end of the first quarter and as much as 12 midway through the first half, New York switched to a zone and that significantly slowed down Connecticut's offense. From that point on, the Sun was outscored by 19 points. New York limited Connecticut's ability to get into the paint, which is what was killing them early in the game.
The Liberty hardly ever played zone during the regular season, but with so many long, athletic players, it worked wonders in slowing down the Sun's penetration and forcing them to hit outside shots. Throughout the postseason, Connecticut is averaging 41.9% from deep. That number dropped to just 39.1% in Tuesday's game. It also went from scoring 34 points in the paint in Game 1 to just 24 in Game 2. Not being able to get to the basket as easily, its field goal percentage dropped from 44.7% in the first half to just 30% in the second half.
Unless Connecticut catches fire from outside in Game 3, I don't think it'll be able to keep up with New York.
My Pick: Liberty -4
Aces (-6) at Wings, O/U 175
We backed the Aces to cover -10.5 in Game 2 and they only won by seven, so we lost that bet. However, I'm going to back them ATS again on Friday. Las Vegas allowed Dallas to have quite a bit of success in areas that I deem as effort areas. The Wings have been the best offensive rebounding team all season, but Vegas giving up 21 O-boards is inexcusable. That led to 19 second-chance points for the Wings compared to the 11 they scored in Game 1. The Aces were also dominated in the paint, getting outscored down low 42-30. This felt like a game where Las Vegas played with its food a bit. I don't think we'll see that for a second-straight game, especially being a win would end the series and give the Aces a few extra days of rest before meeting either New York or Connecticut in the finals. Plus, Vegas has covered this number five of six meetings with Dallas this season. Most books have this line at -6.5, but you can still get -6 at DraftKings, so head over there and take the road team to get the job done!
My Pick: Aces -6