NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For This Weekend's Race

NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For GEICO 500 at Talladega

Welcome to the Geico 500 lottery at Talladega Superspeedway! A fan favorite, NASCAR will continue to run restrictor-plate superspeedway races until car owners run out of money replacing the damaged machinery.

The difficulty in handicapping pack racing is legendary and at least three-quarters of the field has the ability to win. In the past three seasons, including this year’s Daytona International Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway races, 12 active drivers have won in those 14 races. Chase Elliott and William Byron are the only two among that group with multiple victories. 

As a result, the opening odds this week are relatively flat. While there are no single-digit lines for the outright win, there are very few astronomically long odds for dark horses. There are a few interesting lines such as former plate winner Justin Haley opening at 100/1 at MGM, Caesars and BetRivers or Corey LaJoie showing consensus odds of 50/1, but the better bet on those drivers is to find an acceptable top-five line and wager a moderate amount. 

This week, MGM opened with the most lucrative odds among the top 10 drivers at +1390 and BetRivers was a close second at +1380.

NASCAR Picks For GEICO 500

1. Ryan Blaney ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1000

Consensus Odds*: +1040 | Best Odds: BetRivers +1200

Blaney is the consensus favorite this week, narrowly edging fellow Ford men Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski. It’s hard to find fault with that pick – and since the difference between the top-ranked driver and sixth in consensus odds is only 140 points, there is no extenuating rationale for looking for that little extra margin. Talladega has been extremely kind to him with a win last fall, back-to-back second-place finishes in 2022/2023, plus another pair of victories in 2019 and 2020.

2. William Byron ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1000

Consensus Odds*: +1120 | Best Odds: MGM, Caesars, BetRivers +1200

Byron’s confidence will be high entering the Geico 500. He has earned the most playoff bonus points (15) after scoring his third victory of the season two weeks ago in Martinsville and that is part of a current streak of four races with results of seventh or better. He also finished that well in both of his 2023 ‘Dega duels with a best of second to Blaney last fall. His two pack race wins in the last two seasons are another sign that he is capable of staying out of trouble. 

3. Bubba Wallace ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1500

Consensus Odds*: +1420 | Best Odds: MGM +1600

We won’t try to hide our enthusiasm for Wallace by making him a dark horse pick – choosing instead to make him one of the top five favorites. Anything can happen in a pack race and Wallace is as susceptible to crashing as the next driver in the field, but his first career win came on this style of track at Talladega in 2021. He hasn’t cracked the top 10 in Talladega since, but he has a pair of top-fives in the first two lotteries of 2024. 

4. Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1100

Consensus Odds*: +1180 | Best Odds: MGM, Caesars, FanDuel BetRivers +1200

Now that he’s broken his 42-race winless streak, it’s time to take Elliott seriously again. When the floodgates open for a driver with a team this strong, they tend to string together several strong runs. Elliott’s fall 2022 Talladega win is part of three top-10s in the last two seasons on this track. His other result of 12th was a near miss. 

5. Brad Keselowski ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1000

Consensus Odds*: +1080 | Best Odds: MGM, BetRivers +1200

Keselowski was close to snapping his winless streak last week. He used pitstop strategy to put his car in contention and refused to move over for drivers who have had greater success in recent years. A second-place finish at Texas Motor Speedway only made him hungrier for the win and with a pair of second-place finishes, a fifth and a sixth in the last seven pack races, he came close. He’ll need to stay out of trouble, however, because his last three attempts on this track type have been in the 30s.

6. Erik Jones ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3000

Consensus Odds*: +2760 | Best Odds: DraftKings, FanDuel +3000

The traders know to be stingy with top-10 odds on restrictor-plate superspeedways, but they will try to entice bettors with as many plus lines as possible. Jones is barely in that range with a +110 at DraftKings but that may be slightly attractive. If it fits your betting strategy, cover him with a modest bet for a top-five, however, because he’s come close to that mark several times at Talladega in the past two seasons with three sixth-place results in the last four races. 

7. Kyle Busch ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1500

Consensus Odds*: +1500 | Best Odds: BetRivers +1600

If Busch is able to turn Richard Childress Racing (RCR) around – and some weeks, that seems like a very big if – plate tracks are a likely place for that to occur. We did not think he was ready to contend for top-fives before Atlanta so his third-place there was a bit of a surprise. This week, he’s coming off a top-10 at Texas and while that race was a topsy-turvy affair, it does give him an opportunity to build some momentum. Busch won the 2023 spring race at Talladega. 

8. Austin Cindric ⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +3000

Consensus Odds*: +2720 | Best Odds: BetRivers +3300

Cindric is one of this week’s most attractive dark horses. As one of the dozen winners in the past three seasons, he drove his teammate Blaney into the wall in the 2022 Daytona 500 to put his name on the playoff roster in his rookie season. Things have not gone as well since, but he managed to accrue four more top-fives, a ninth and a pair of top-15s since. He’s not worth a large bet, but at 30/1 might claim some of that spare change you find in the couch cushions. 

9. Ty Gibbs ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2000

Consensus Odds*: +1960 | Best Odds: BetRivers +2200

Gibbs is defying expectations on most track types. He started the 2024 season with five top-10s in the first six races. He’s lost some steam in the last three events but that is to be expected for a Young Gun on the NASCAR circuit. Gibb’s 10th-place finish at Atlanta was his second top-10 in a pack race. 

10. Kyle Larson ⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1900

Consensus Odds*: +1780 | Best Odds: BetRivers +2000

Larson finished fourth in the 2022 spring Talladega event and has not been in the top 10 in 11 pack races since. He’s become crash prone, which is an intangible that is both difficult to put into a spreadsheet and impossible to ignore. Is he due a strong run? The odds are 50-50, but you are not going to find a line this long again for quite some time.

*Consensus odds at the average of six sportsbooks: DraftKings, Fanatics, MGM, Caesars, FanDuel, and BetRivers.