Movement In The To Make 2024-2025 College Football Playoff Market

College football is right around the corner! The 2024-25 season will feature some huge changes with the College Football Playoff expanding from the usual four-team format to a 12-team playoff.

The five highest-ranked conference champions will earn automatic bids while the next seven-highest-ranked teams will fill the remaining spots. Not only will this be an adjustment to how we analyze wins and losses throughout the season, but it will also affect the betting market and how we look at team futures.

Odds to make the CFP have been posted at BetMGM for quite some time now with Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, and Texas owning the top four spots on the board. The Buckeyes are the favorite at -750, which is significantly different from where they opened at -550.

Ohio State isn't the only squad to see noteworthy moves both up and down the board, so let's take a look at where these changes are taking place and which team is the biggest liability for BetMGM.

Biggest CFP Line Movement

According to insights from BetMGM, Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame and Utah are the four teams with the biggest movement in the market when it comes to making the CFP.

Ohio State's implied probability went from 84.6% at open (-550) to 88.2%, which is where they currently sit (-750). The Buckeyes return a ton of talent from last year's team with JT Tuimoloau, TreVeyon Henderson and Emeka Egbuka still on the roster. They also got significantly better this offseason through the transfer portal, which is a big reason for the shift in odds.

The Buckeyes signed Kansas State QB Will Howard, Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins and Alabama safety Caleb Downs. They also welcomed in freshman WR Jeremiah Smith who is expected to have an immediate impact.

With new additions to the Big Ten this season, Ohio State's schedule became more difficult, though. The Buckeyes travel to Oregon in October to take on the Ducks who are one of four Pac-12 teams to join the Big Ten.

Just like the Buckeyes, Oregon signed some top-tier talent in the offseason, which is a likely reason its odds of making the playoffs moved from -200 to -250. Former Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel will take over for the departed Bo Nix under center. The Ducks also added significant depth at wide receiver, bringing in Texas A&M's Evan Stewart and Troy's Tez Johnson.

Another massive win for the Ducks this offseason was keeping head coach Dan Lanning from going to Alabama. With Lanning at the helm and restocked talent, Oregon shouldn't have an issue getting into the CFP and its shift in odds reflects that.

Biggest CFP Liability

Remember when the world went nuts over Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes last season? They were the most bet team for the majority of the season and a huge liability for the books each week. Well, despite a terrible 4-8 season, that hasn't changed.

Coach Prime's squad has the highest ticket percentage to make the CFP at 12.3%, meaning the public is all over the Buffs. The next most-bet team in terms of tickets is Iowa at 9.4%.

The public loves to bet on Colorado because of the storylines. The program is flashy, filled with drama, and has a head coach and QB who loves the spotlight. The Buffs provide excitement which is what the casual bettor is often drawn to. Moving from the Pac-12 to the Big 12 should make Colorado's schedule a bit easier this year, leading to more wins. That said, will it be easy enough to make the CFP? I don't think so.

As an Iowa grad, I love that the public thinks the Hawkeyes will be good enough to make the CFP. There is a lot of unknown around the program this year with new offensive coordinator Tim Lester taking over for Brian Ferentz. However, after having the worst offense in the country last year, any upgrade will be significant. Plus, with one of the best defenses in the country, an upgrade on offense could be all this team needs to position itself as one of the top 12 teams.