2024 March Madness Upset, Underdog & Cinderella Picks

Get ready for the ultimate showdown in college basketball because March Madness is here, bringing with it a whirlwind of upsets and thrilling matchups in the NCAA tournament.

Betting on the NCAA tournament can be tricky, given the razor-sharp lines set by sportsbooks' expert oddsmakers. But BetQL has your back with our top picks for who could pull the biggest upsets. With plenty of underdogs in the mix, you can hit some huge plus-money bets, leading to bigger profits.

At BetQL, we've got the inside scoop to give you the edge over the competition. Our advanced algorithms rate every moneyline bet on a scale of one to five stars, highlighting the most valuable bets at the current odds. Even a slight advantage can make all the difference, as hitting just one plus-money winner can keep you in the green.

We recommend tailing our three-star and higher plus-money bets, with three stars for smaller wagers and five stars for bigger ones. Plus, our game pages provide invaluable insights to help you make informed decisions on which underdogs to back and where to find the best prices. So, buckle up and get ready for the madness of March Madness with BetQL by your side!

Now, let's take a look at our editorial staff's favorite Cinderella picks for the 2024 NCAA tournament!

2024 March Madness Cinderella Picks

Dan Karpuc: No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs (Midwest Region)

I have No. 9 TCU beating No. 8 Utah State in Round 1 before knocking off No. 1 Purdue and No. 13 Samford to reach the Elite 8. The Horned Frogs would blow up that entire quadrant as a result.

The Horned Frogs love to push the pace, as evidenced by the fact that they ranked first in the country with 18.1 fast-break points per game this season, including the conference tournament.

Led by seniors Emanuel Miller (15.9 PPG), Jameer Nelson Jr. (11.3 PPG) and Micah Peavy (11.1 PPG), the rest of Jamie Dixon’s rotation features all upperclassmen with the exception of sophomore Ernest Udeh Jr.

With wins over Houston, Baylor and Texas Tech, this TCU team lost by two against Kansas and one against Iowa State. I expect this team to have no issue with Utah State before ultimately beating Zach Edey and Purdue in the second round by taking them out of their comfort zone. The way to beat the Boilermakers is to get out and run and not allow Edey and their defense to get set, and that's exactly what TCU loves to do!

Brad Pinkerton: No. 11 New Mexico Lobos (West Region)

I think we're going to see absolute chaos in the Wild West, and the Lobos should both contribute to and take advantage of the madness.

First of all, New Mexico is not your average 11 seed. The Lobos rank 23rd on KenPom's final pre-tourney rankings with a balanced team that skews toward defense and just knocked off San Diego State, last year's national runner-up, to win the MWC tournament. As such, they are actually favored in Round 1 against No. 6 Clemson, which has lost three of its last four.

Zoom out and this region is full of less-than-trustworthy higher seeds after No. 1 UNC -- but even the Heels just got bullied by N.C. State in the ACC championship and may have to deal with "Danger 'Dog" Tom Izzo and No. 9 Michigan State (No. 18 on KenPom's list and a perennial Cinderella candidate) in Round 2. No. 2 Arizona, No. 3 Baylor and No. 4 Alabama have also shown vulnerabilities and are susceptible to their own upsets in Rounds 1-2.

If New Mexico handles Clemson and there are some other early upsets in this region to help pave the way, watch out for Los Lobos!

Lucy Burdge: No. 15 St. Peter’s Peacocks (Midwest Region)

St. Peter’s was a Cinderella story in 2022, and I think they could shock the world once again. The Peacocks made it to the Elite Eight that year, so they know it is possible. The question here though is whether they can beat No. 2 Tennessee to start another Cinderella run. Because through God anything is possible (so jot that down), and I think they can do it. St. Peter’s comes into this game with some momentum, as it just took down Fairfield to win the MAAC tournament. Plus, Tennessee is coming off of losses to Kentucky and Mississippi State (by 17). So I think if any team in this tournament can get another Cinderella story going, it will be St. Peter’s!

Matt Horner: No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys (Midwest Region)

There is a good chance that you have never even heard of McNeese State, as they play in the Southland Conference. I'm here to tell you that they are one of the best teams in the country, going an incredible 30-3 this season with a ridiculous 17-1 conference record. I also know what you are thinking right now, which is "They play in a garbage conference against scrubs, their record doesn't matter because they don't play anyone." While it's true that the Southland does kinda stink, it also has a history of massive upsets in the NCAA tourney. The most recent one was Abilene Christian's tournament debut in a massive upset of a very good Texas Longhorns team in 2021.

The Cowboys also have several wins this year over some very good teams like UAB, VCU and even beat Michigan in Ann Arbor to show they can take down a Power 5 team. Their only three losses came by single digits, two of the three by a single score. McNeese also has some fantastic guard play, which I have constantly hit on as one of the most important things to have in any tournament. Leading scorer Shahada Wells could be the next big name you hear about this March, and 75/1 is a great value on this team.

They get Gonzaga in the first game, a team that has looked overrated all season. This isn't the same Bulldogs team that we have become accustomed to over the last five years, and they can certainly lose in Round 1.

Kate Constable: 12 James Madison Dukes (South Region)

James Madison went 31-3 on the season and is coming into the tournament on a 13-game win streak, longest in the nation. They shocked the college basketball world in their first game of the season, beating Michigan State in overtime in East Lansing. I like them to upset another Big Ten team when they beat Wisconsin in the opening round before getting past Duke en route to the Sweet Sixteen.

Defensively, the Dukes have the best opponent 3-point shooting percentage of any team in the tournament and are a solid rebounding team. On the offensive end, they shoot 36.1% from beyond the arc, take great care of the ball and average nearly 85 points per game. This roster also has a lot of tournament experience despite this being JMU’s first appearance since 2013.

March Madness Cinderella Picks For NCAA Tournament

Don't think that we won't have you covered with all kinds of other bets on the NCAA Tournament, because outside of our underdog bets, we also have star-rated picks on the total, first half, and player props! Our model is able to simulate every game 10,000 times and give you the most likely outcome for each bet. It's amazing what technology can do, and with the BetQL model getting better and better every season by adapting and learning, the books don't have a prayer.

March Madness is not a time when you want to bet without being informed as much as possible on every game, and with our game pages, you will have all the info you need at your fingertips for the entire NCAA Tournament. Best bets, statistics, ATS records, and all kinds of useful trends to make sure you make the best bet for every game to give you the biggest edge.

Understanding Underdog Picks For March Madness

In sports betting, there is always going to be a favorite and an underdog. The favorite is who is projected to win the game, and they come with a "-" sign in front of their odds. This means that you will have to pay a bit of "juice" to make this bet. So, a -110 bet means that you will have to bet $110 to win $100. Underdogs are the teams that are projected to lose the game, and carry a "+" sign next to their odds. This means that you will get money on top of your bet. So a +110 odds line means that a $100 bet wins you $110 in profit.

That is called getting plus money, and those bets can be very valuable and offer the biggest payday if you can pick some winners as underdogs. Good news, as BetQL will have all the most valuable underdogs right at your fingertips that have the best chance to upset the favorite. Use all of our great tools and info to bet on these 'dogs and start bringing home the bacon this month.

What is a March Madness Cinderella?

A "Cinderella" in March Madness is a term used to describe a team that is not expected to perform well, but manages to make an unexpected deep run in the tournament. These teams are often underdogs with low-seeded positions in the bracket, and they typically come from smaller, less well-known schools.

The term "Cinderella" is derived from the fairy tale of the same name, in which a poor, lowly girl rises to prominence and finds success against all odds. Similarly, a March Madness Cinderella is a team that exceeds expectations and achieves unexpected success.

Some of the most famous Cinderella stories in March Madness history include George Mason University in 2006, which reached the Final Four as an 11th seed, and Loyola Chicago in 2018, which made a surprising run to the Final Four as an 11th seed as well.

What Are the Biggest Upsets in March Madness History?

March Madness is known for its upsets, with lower-seeded teams often knocking off higher-seeded teams in thrilling games. Here are a few of the biggest upset picks in March Madness history:

1. 1985: #8 Villanova over #1 Georgetown - In one of the biggest upsets in tournament history, Villanova, as an 8th seed, upset the top-ranked Georgetown Hoyas to win the NCAA Championship. This game is widely regarded as one of the greatest upsets in sports history.
2. 1991: #15 Richmond over #2 Syracuse - In the first round of the tournament, #15 Richmond shocked #2 Syracuse with a 73-69 win, becoming the first #15 seed to win a game in tournament history.
3. 1993: #2 Santa Clara over #2 Arizona - In one of the most memorable upsets in tournament history, Steve Nash and #15 Santa Clara upset #2 Arizona in the first round, with Nash scoring 10 points and dishing out 5 assists in the game.
4. 1996: #13 Princeton over #4 UCLA - In a classic David vs. Goliath matchup, #13 Princeton upset #4 UCLA with a 43-41 victory. The game was notable for Princeton's slow-paced offense and disciplined defense, which frustrated the higher-seeded Bruins.
5. 2012: #15 Norfolk State over #2 Missouri - In one of the most shocking upsets in tournament history, #15 Norfolk State upset #2 Missouri in the first round, with Kyle O'Quinn leading the way with 26 points and 14 rebounds.

These are just a few of the biggest upset picks in March Madness history, but there are many more memorable upsets that have taken place over the years.

What is the Lowest Seed to win the NCAA Tournament?

The lowest seed to win the NCAA Tournament is #8, which has happened twice in tournament history.

The first time it happened was in 1985, when the Villanova Wildcats, as an #8 seed, went on a magical run to win the tournament. They upset #1-seeded Michigan in the Elite Eight, and then went on to beat #2-seeded North Carolina in the Final Four, before upsetting #1-seeded Georgetown in the championship game.

The second time it happened was in 2011, when the Connecticut Huskies, also an #8 seed, won the tournament. They beat #2-seeded San Diego State in the Sweet 16, #5-seeded Arizona in the Elite Eight, #3-seeded Kentucky in the Final Four, and then defeated #8-seeded Butler in the championship game.

No #9, #10, #11, #12, #13, #14, or #15 seed has ever won the NCAA Tournament. The #16 seed has never won a game in the tournament's history.

What are the Most Common March Madness Upsets?

The most typical March Madness upset seeding is the #12 seed over the #5 seed. In the history of the tournament, #12 seeds have beaten #5 seeds over 50% of the time in the first round.

This upset is so common that it has become known as the "5-12 upset." Many bracketologists and analysts often look for potential #12 seed upsets when filling out their brackets, as it has become a common occurrence in the tournament.

Other common upsets in the tournament include the #11 seed over the #6 seed, the #10 seed over the #7 seed, and the #9 seed over the #8 seed, although these upsets happen less frequently than the 5-12 upset.

It's important to note, however, that upsets can happen in any game and any round of the tournament, and that no team is truly safe from an upset. The unpredictability of March Madness is what makes it such a thrilling and exciting event for fans of college basketbal

Need more March Madness Picks?

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March Madness fans we have everything you need with our college basketball expert picks; you can find out where the experts are putting down their cash for every game and every bet type this month.

Want to hear from our BetQL staff? We have March Madness over under picks, prop picks, and college basketball parlays waiting for you every single day of the NCAA Tournament.

Don’t forge that NIT tickets cash just the same as NCAA Tournament do, so check out our 2024 NIT Picks for every single night of tournament.

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