Finding a long shot is always a love-hate relationship. We can convince ourselves why they're worth the risk, then get caught up in the potential return, only to have it more often than not fall short of expectations.
Of course, that doesn't mean we're going to stop, does it? No way. In fact, we can just dive in again right now.
What Are The Odds?
If you're looking at the NBA MVP odds, let's take odds at +5000 or longer and try to find who brings the most value here. We already looked at the potential for LeBron James to defy the odds at +2500, so let's go even longer now.
Starting with team performance, which we know is a must, it's important to find someone that will not only be on a winner, but likely be the most important player on that roster.
Voter fatigue is a real thing, and it's the reason why you have so many different winners over the years, as opposed to just the best two or three players over a decade. So to find the right value here, we'd have to also take into account someone who hasn't had their "moment," if you will.
There's also the age part of this, with Karl Malone sitting as the oldest ever to win the award at 35, along with Michael Jordan. Steve Nash won his when he was 31 and 32, while Kareem Abdul-Jabbar won his final MVP at 33 years old.
That matters, but it's not the most important factor, obviously.
The Best Option
Given that we're looking at such long odds, we likely won't be able to find a name that fits all of those bullet points perfectly. That's the reason they're a long-shot here.
Looking over at BetMGM, a name that stands out is Paul George. With Kawhi Leonard back (+2500 for MVP, so he's ruled out here), the Clippers are expected to not only compete again in the West, but also for an NBA title, tied for the second-best odds at +650.
George is 32 but has been in the MVP conversation before. He brings not only the fact that he's a great two-way player to the table, but plenty of scoring to entice voters.
Obviously, playing with Kawhi could cannibalize some votes, but it could also accentuate what he does well. (We're looking to justify a long-shot here, people, so work with me.)
With other names like Anthony Davis and Jimmy Butler (+5000), Zion Williamson and Damian Lillard (+6600), Donovan Mitchell and DeMar Derozan (+8000), sitting around the same spot but with the potential for seasons that don't stack up to the Clippers', PG-13 seems to fit the criteria best.
Like I said, we're trying to find a long-shot here, so there's plenty of reasons not to have confidence in George, I get it. But, what if he does come through? We don't want to let that slip out of our fingers, do we?
Ahh, the pull of a long-shot will always be strong.