LeBron James Would Defy All Odds Winning Another MVP

The NBA MVP is a popularity contest. Every year there's new names climbing the odds and voting lists, while the mainstays continue to hang around given their consistency as one of the best players in the league, even if they're past any real chance of getting enough votes.

More than anything, it becomes a "next man up" scenario by season's end, with a short window for a majority of players to ever hold the crown.

Of course, over the history of this league, there's always a few that you could argue deserve it just about every year, with names like Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, or LeBron James coming to mind right off the bat.

At 37 years old, LeBron is still one of the best players in the NBA, even finishing second in scoring (30.3 points per game) this past season. We get spoiled at times given the longevity of his career, and the reality is he's earned far more MVPs than the four he's won.

At this point in his career though, winning another would push back on just about every trend we've seen from the history of the award.

A True Longshot

Sitting at +2500 to win MVP, LeBron is officially a long-shot in 2023. Given the year he had on his own this past season though, sure, he should be talked about in the same sentence as favorites like Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, or Nikola Jokic. The problem is, you also have to have a team that, you know, wins games, and right now the Lakers look far too similar to last year's disaster to warrant much respect when it comes to the whole winning part.

But, should GM LeBron pull off a big, conference-shaking move this summer, the Lakers could in theory get back to their title aspirations midset again.

The human element in sports is often overlooked, but it can have a massive impact on any outcome. Voter fatigue is a real thing, and it's the reason why you have so many different winners over the years, as opposed to just the best two or three players over a decade.

The four James won were both in back-to-back seasons, but the last was 2013. You could easily argue he was worthy of a few more in the past eight seasons. 

Steph Curry? Twice in back-to-back years. Steve Nash? Same thing. Tim Duncan? Same thing. 

Michael Jordan won five MVPs, never more than back-to-back years though, and never even three over a four-year span. 

You have to go all the way back to Magic Johnson in 1990 to find someone that won the NBA MVP three times over a four-year span. That hadn’t been done since Kareem from 1974-1977. 

Larry Bird was the last player to win it three straight years. 

There's also the age part of this, with Karl Malone sitting as the oldest ever to win the award at 35, along with Jordan. Nash won his when he was 31 and 32, while Kareem won his final at 33 years old.

Making History

The patterns tell us you have a short window to win, and even with the almost two decades of historic success for James, that window is almost all the way closed.

Sure, in theory, if the Lakers somehow shock the NBA and revamp this roster before the start of the season, and LeBron has another year individually like he did last season, he could sway some voters to give him one final win in the twilight of his career.

That would fall under the narrative part of this award, which matters, and there's no better way to salute James and the length of time he's dominated this league than crowning him the oldest MVP in NBA history.

That's highly unlikely though, but hey, you never know.